April 1 News Updates

Not a Joke

I’ve waited for the end of the day to write this, just in case anyone thought it might be a joke. It isn’t. I’ll try to have some fun, but as far as I know what I’ll be writing about is all true. Almost everything is an update on items I’ve written about before.

Birthright Citizenship

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments today on the case of Trump v. Barbara. The Court has had written arguments from both sides and from amici curiae (literally friends of the court, legal opinions from people not directly involved in the case). Today is the one chance for both sides to present their arguments in person and for the justices to ask questions. It can (sometimes) give an indication of what the members of the court are thinking.

For the first time in history a sitting president will also be there to listen. There is, of course, no reason for him not to do so. The justices are not the kind of people to be intimidated.

We have discussed the issue of birthright citizenship before and its relation to the Fourteenth Amendment. What is interesting is just how far the argument has moved from only a year ago.

Almost no one would have thought this issue was up for debate. But now it is a tossup. The Court really could rule either way. It is an astonishing development.

DHS Funding

It looks like there is a deal to completely fund the Department of Homeland Security. Large parts of it (ICE has been funded separately) have been without funding for six weeks. Travelers needing to go through TSA at airports should be very happy.

Politicians on both sides, Republicans and Democrats, will claim victory and their party members will probably claim defeat. It is a victory insofar as something actually got done. The Democrats didn’t get ICE defunded or abolished, so large parts of their party will be upset. The Republicans didn’t get the country to blame the Democrats for the shutdown, so their party will complain that it was a missed opportunity to cause them pain.

Moon Shot

Tonight NASA launched a rocket to take American astronauts further into space than ever before. They won’t land on the moon. That will come later. But they will go around it and prepare for the next few missions that will eventually land back on the moon.

For anyone born after 1972, this will be the first time in your lives that anyone will have made this trip. The last mission was Apollo 17 on Dec. 7, 1972.

There should be some amazing pictures. Here is a visual of their ten day (10 day!) mission:

Iran

OK, so this is the big one. Everyone is wondering what is going on there. As before, more of the same.

Israel is racking up a long list of Iranian officials they have killed. We really haven’t seen anything like this before, where the military and political leadership has been eliminated in such numbers.

The only other historical analogy, and it is imperfect, is from the Anabasis of Xenophon. This tells the story of 10,000 Greek mercenaries stranded behind enemy lines after their employer, Cyrus the Younger, is killed in battle. Their generals were called to a treaty with the Persians where they were all killed. Leaderless, the 10,000 had to fight their was back to Greece.

OK, I said it was an imperfect analogy, but you have to like the fact that I get to mention Xenophon and that all this took place in the same location as the war right now.

Some ships are getting through the Strait of Homuz, which suggests there are no mines. Some ships are paying Iran $2 million for safe passage. This suggests that there are Iranians in control of the military forces stationed to shut the Strait. Someone is asking for the money. Someone is getting the money. And someone has enough control to make sure nothing happens to the ships that paid the money.

All this brings us to the reports, claims, counter-claims, and denials about talks between the US and Iran. There might, or might not, be conversations about either ending the war, opening the Strait, neither, or something else entirely.

The President is scheduled to speak to the nation at 9:00pm Eastern time tonight. I’m going to try to post this before the address so I don’t have to change everything I’ve written. Then I’ll probably post again tomorrow when we know what he said.

Iran Implications

Since I can’t report on what the President is going to say, I may as well bring you up to speed on the implications of the Iran bombing. And all we’ve done so far is drop bombs, fire missiles, and use drones. That is significant.

Here at home the President’s approval has been dropping like a stone. There has not been a “rally ‘round the flag” effect. MAGA still loves him. Democrats are tearing their (pink) hair out. And lots of people in the middle are frustrated with rising gas prices.

Countries in Asia are desperate for oil. None of the major countries in Asia have oil or natural gas, so almost every bit is imported from the Middle East. Australia does have both but has stopped all extraction for environmental reasons. They even shut their one refinery, which means they have to import even more expensive refined oil. They have enough left in the country for only a few weeks, if that.

Europe is in a similar situation. France has a lot of nuclear power, so it can at least produce electricity. This is not true of much of the rest of the continent. There are calls for people to reduce their driving, stay home, and even work from home. Rationing and enforced closure of businesses is likely if things continue.

Europe is not happy, and they are not keeping that a secret. Spain has refused to allow American military planes to use its airspace. Italy has refused to allow them to use bases there.

In response, Pres. Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has bound the nations of the West together since the beginning of the Cold War. Its purpose has been described as keeping the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. It doesn’t seem to be doing any of those things at the moment. But the President can’t do anything about this. Congress passed a law expressly forbidding presidents from removing the country from NATO.

With all this going on the speech tonight is going to be interesting. If there is some sort of quick resolution the economy could get back on track quickly. If, on the other hand, the President will announce further escalation and maybe the landing of ground troops on Iranian soil, it is hard to think of many people who will be happy with that. But if it works…

Everyone loves a winner. And depending on the way it is resolved, if it is resolved, one of the largest oil producers in the world and most strategic sites on the planet (between China and the Mediterranean) will be taken out of the Chinese and Russian orbit and placed firmly in the American.

High risk. High reward. And let’s not forget that this is all in the context of a midterm election this year.