Peace in the Middle East?
Yes, there is always a question mark
Hamas has accepted the 20 point peace plan put forward by the Trump administration. This is really big news. Almost no one was expecting that they would do so.
The agreement comes almost exactly two years after the horrific attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Since then, a lot has happened in the war:
Israel attacked Gaza and has reduced much of it to rubble.
Israel executed the “beeper plan” in which they exploded beepers held by perhaps thousands of Hezbollah operatives. (Hezbollah are the counterpoints of Hamas in the West Bank on the other side of Israel and also Palestinian terrorists.)
Jordan has assisted Israel in intercepting Iranian drones and missiles, marking a significant level of assistance after a history of hostility.
The Assad regime collapsed in Syria leading, oddly, to a more friendly government led by a former al-Qaeda militant (Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa).
The destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, with American help. (The extent of the destruction is disputed, but it is significant for many reasons.)
The elimination of almost every member of Hamas leadership.
Pressure on the Palestinians from almost the entire Muslim world to do whatever is necessary to end the war.
Pressure from Western nations, most especially the United Kingdom, France, and Canada for Israel to stop the war and let the Palestinians and Hamas establish a state.
I’m sure there is a lot I’m missing but the Middle East is not what it was on Oct. 6, 2023. Israel is in a stronger position than it has been in a long time, although not with European countries. With Muslim countries, however, it is a different story. While Europe is trying to kick Israel out of the Eurovision Song Contest (you don’t want to know), most of the Middle East looks poised to formally recognize Israel and enter the Abraham Accords.
What everyone in the Middle East is willing to say, but Europe won’t, is that President Trump is almost single handedly responsible for this outcome. Yes, a lot of other people were involved, but Trump did something that no president has done throughout the long conflict. He did not try to look like an impartial spectator or an “honest broker.” He was clearly on Israel’s side.
While most people would have thought being a referee and not taking sides would work best, it certainly hasn’t. His support of Israel—while popular support for Israel in the West and even in the US has dropped dramatically—set him up to be able to threaten Hamas and pressure Israel in a way no other president has been able to do. When he said that he’s support Israel doing anything at all if Hamas refused the deal, everyone believed him. But the Israeli prime minister also knew that Trump was his, and Israel’s, only friend in the world at that moment. Trump had significant leverage to use on both sides.
It worked.
Why the question mark in the title of this post? Experience. The Palestinians have broken many agreements in the past. Muslims also have a principle of taqiyya, which allows them to lie to non-Muslims. While ostensibly a very restricted right, it has been used in situations like this. But more importantly, supporters of Hamas and the Palestinians in Western Europe, Canada, and the United States have not greeted the peace deal with enthusiasm.
This means there is a large contingent of people in the most powerful parts of the world who are not necessarily pleased with the ceasefire they said they wanted. These people would be as happy to celebrate and denounce Israel if Hamas breaks the deal, just as they were two years ago when Hamas committed such atrocities as few have ever seen.
One last thing: by the time you read this the Nobel Prize Committee will probably have announced the recipient of their Peace Prize. After these recent events it would be almost impossible not to award it to President Trump. But given their politics (they gave it to President Obama in 2008 before he had done anything) and the fact that most of Europe would hunt them down if they were to do so, this is unlikely. But the reactions either way will be something to watch.