War in Iran
Most of the World against the Islamic Republic
Well, I was hoping to write about Sec. Marco Rubio’s speech in Munich and Pres. Trump’s State of the Union Address. That’s going to have to wait.
The United States and Israel bombed various military and government installations early this morning. The division of labor seems to have the American forces destroy military assets and the Israelis target the political and military leaders. We already have credible reports that the Ayatollah Khamenei, the religious leader and real power in the country, has been killed. Everything is provisional at this point, but wow!
It is too early to make any grand assessments, but this could be one of the most positive events in the quarter century since 9/11. The terrorist attack on New York City and the Pentagon was the logical conclusion of Islamic attacks on the West, starting not so much with the Munich Olympics, but the taking of hostage the American Embassy during the Iranian Revolution. If this is successful in overturning the Islamic Republic, we could see a reversal of the trajectory of politics in the region.
Fascinatingly, Saudi Arabia has declared that it will join the US and Israel in their attacks on Iran. This is because Iran’s response to the assault this morning was to send missiles to seven countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. The Saudis do not have diplomatic relations with Israel but they will engage in joint military actions? Strange days, indeed.
The Decision
The decision to go to war is not to be taken lightly. That’s why the Constitution puts the power to do so in the hands of the Senate. Oh. What were they doing this week? They held a “Bipawtisan Doggi Gras Pawrade” for their pets. I guess everyone’s lucky Trump isn’t a horse guy. (Caligula reference there for those in the know.)
Was what Trump did (is doing) illegal? That’s tricky. First, we’ve been “at war” several times in the last eighty years without a declaration of war from the Senate. For those of us who would like to see the Constitution followed closely by elected representatives, this is troubling. But in this case it might be less so.
The Senate issued an “Authorized Use of Military Force” AUMF on Sept. 18, 2001. It has not been repealed. There was a separate one issued specifically in regards to Iraq which has been repealed. Does the AUMF apply to the events today? Maybe. Probably.
The Constitution also gives the President broad powers in regards to international relations in Article II. Although it does not use the phrase, the strong implication is that salus populi, suprema lex (the safety of the people is the highest law). Presidents have used this implied meaning of their powers from the beginning. Given that there was almost no pushback in Congress to the massive movement of military assets into the Middle East in preparation for this morning’s attacks, one might see tacit agreement there among legislators.
The Outcome
No one knows what will come of today’s attack. There are three broad possibilities:
The regime leaders are all killed and the Revolutionary Guard is crushed. People rise up and are supported by the non-radicalized military. As a result Raza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shaw, can step in to set up some sort of constitutional monarchy.
Remnants of the regime survive and a civil war ensues. Israel does not have the ground forces to intervene and the Americans are still wary of a war of this sort since the Iraq War (many of the problems and casualties in which were caused by Iranian soldiers). Other countries (see below) could be drawn in.
Airstrikes alone cannot take out the leaders or new leaders emerge. The Islamic Republic essentially survives, inflicts further reprisals on its people, and not much is different from yesterday.
The three possibilities depend on the efficacy of the military operation and whether the emerging coalition of what seems at this point to be the entire Middle East can actually hold. This all depends, in turn, on the intelligence operations in Iran. Are the Americans hitting the right military sites and are the Israelis hitting the actual leaders of the regime? Large scale civilian casualties and ineffective decapitation of the regime would point towards the less favorable outcomes.
Concurrent Events
Pakistan and Afghanistan are now at war. Just to put this in context, Pakistan has nuclear weapons (developed to counter India) and both countries border Iran. This could get messy. A civil war in Iran could easily pull in one or both countries. Even a very weakened Iran would open up the use of its territory for military purposes for either of these countries. Better to fight on Iranian soil than your own. That would not help.
Prior to this morning’s attacks, the United Kingdom refused to allow the US to use any of its military bases for any actions against Iran. The Labour Party of the UK, currently in power with Kier Starmer as Prime Minister, is beholden to Muslim voters and cannot support any action against Islamic countries, no matter what. There are demonstrations by Iranians throughout the world currently in support of the actions by the US and Israel. These will be important to follow.
However, Starmer and his Labour Party rely on a coalition of Muslims and leftist. Well, they did. There was a bi-election in a safe Labour seat just the other day which was won by a member of the Green Party, which is a real coalition of Islamic/Environmental radicals. If Labour loses the Muslims they lose power. This is why he is doing everything he can to appease them, even to the extent of proposing blasphemy laws that would protect only Islam. There is a good deal of speculation that the UK was not informed of today’s plans because they could not be trusted for this very reason.
Russia and China have been silent so far. Both have been allies of Iran. Russia gets drones from them for the war in Ukraine and China gets a lot of its oil from Iran. But Russia is overextended at the moment and cannot help anyone. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping has removed (from office and/or from life) most of the top Chinese military in the wake of the successful Venezuela operation. This should send a signal to the world that they are not reliable allies. Collapse of the Islamic Republic would also have profound effects on the Ukraine War and on the Chinese economy.
I’ll try to keep you updated. In the meantime, it might be a good idea to go and listen to that O Brother, Where Art Thou? soundtrack.